Fitch Reiterates Warning on China’s Banking System . We have been preoccupied lately worrying about what is going on in Europe and the U.S. but potential problems in China are worth keeping a close eye on.
Treasurys’ Curve Ball: Yield Spread Hints at Growth Optimism . Probably not. One of the side effects you get when you start messing around with free markets are all sorts of distortions. The Fed can bring short term interest rates to zero but they don’t have as much influence on long term rates. This is […]
Pimco’s Gross Has ‘Lost Sleep’ Over Bad Bets . Longer term Bill Gross will probably be right, Treasury yields are extremely low and you are not really getting compensated for the risk or inflation. In a rational world 3.5% 30 yr Treasury bonds do not make sense but in the shorter and intermediate term the […]
How to make a black-swan tactic fly This is not the right way. Buying out of the money puts costs you money until the market goes down, if you hit a period like 1982-99 that stinks. The right way is to create a basket of “safe haven” assets like gold, Swiss Franc, Treasuries, etc. You […]
AIG Gets Tough on Analyst Views Lets assume for a moment that research analysts can actually predict what stocks to buy and what stocks to sell. The bottom line is, and will always be, research is not a profit center, investment banking is. Do you want to be the research analyst who blew your firm’s […]
Was just quoted in the Franklin Prosperity Report on portfolio rebalancing. I would provide you a link to the quote but I sent them my headshot to go along with the quote. There must have been a mixup, they got the quote right but put in someone elses headshot. Below is the quote: The Pitfalls […]
Watching CNBC this morning and some guy they were interviewing had one of the best quotes I have ever heard–“Never underestimate how wrong everyone else can be”. A lot of people make their investment decisions by getting recommendations from the so called “smart money” the problem with that is that these people are often wrong, […]
Just heard CNBC talking about how the portfolio managers they are talking to are confused. Not sure what is so confusing—stocks and many commodities are in a downtrend and Gold and Bonds are in an uptrend. During any uptrend or downtrend you will see reversals—simple as that. You get confused when you try to look […]